Strategy owns bitcoin, borrows against it and sells preferred stock, so its shares move about 1.3 times as much as the bitcoin underneath. You also pay a premium: the stock costs more than the bitcoin and cash left after its debts. Which one does better depends on two things you have to guess: where bitcoin goes, and what that premium does. Set both and see.
MSTR's line is steeper because of the debt. Where the two lines cross is the bitcoin price where they tie. Above it MSTR wins, below it the ETF wins. Moving the premium slides that crossing point.
Each square is one outcome. The dashed line is today's premium. The dot is the outcome you picked. If the premium holds, MSTR wins when bitcoin rises and loses when it falls. If the premium shrinks, bitcoin has to rise a lot further before MSTR comes out ahead.
| Per MSTR share, Oct 15, 2026 | Value |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin (848,250 BTC at $82,151) | $165.05 |
| Cash reserve | $13.07 |
| Debt | −$15.90 |
| Preferred stock | −$32.56 |
| Left for shareholders | $129.66 |
| Share price | $148.09 |
| Premium (price ÷ left for shareholders) | 1.14 |
| Preferred dividends per share per year | $3.69 |
The model holds Strategy's balance sheet fixed apart from dividends: no new bitcoin buys, no new shares, no debt changes. Dividends are taken out of what shareholders own. In practice Strategy often pays them by selling new shares, and selling shares above their bitcoin value can add bitcoin per share. Debt and preferred are at Strategy's stated amounts. Strategy's own mNAV uses a diluted share count, so it reads a little higher (1.153 that day). The ETF line takes off a 0.25% yearly fee. Taxes and trading costs are left out. Strategy also moves on its own news, so even a right guess on both inputs gives a range, not a point.